How Personal Biases, Past Mistakes Can Block Investment Growth

By: Oxana Saunders

today imageOne of the biggest challenges related to managing our money is figuring out how to preserve and grow our capital. These decisions are often influenced by personal biases and past financial mistakes or bad experiences we might have had. They can lead us to avoid investing in financial markets and only focusing on capital preservation by keeping money in savings accounts or CDs. This type of bias also leads to failure to realize the power of compounding interest and what it means for our investments long-terms.

The article from online magazine The Balance, linked below, elaborates on these issues.

If you are struggling to overcome negative biases associated with investing, please call us for a free consultation. We can walk you through investment strategies that may help you overcome simple obstacles that get in the way of your investments.

the balance
Overcoming a Major Retirement Planning Hurdle: Present Bias

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Oxana Saunders Vice President Path FinancialOxana Saunders is the Vice President of Path Financial, LLC. She may be reached at 941.894.2571 or oxana@pathfinancial.net.

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Falling number of shares a key factor behind the market rally

By: Raul Elizalde
today's photoWhen a stock pays a dividend rate higher than the interest at which the company can borrow money, it makes sense for that company to issue debt and buy back its own stock. This is exactly what happened as interest rates fell to historic lows. We believe that the retirement of equities is a key factor in the stock market rally, making them look “expensive” when compared to traditional measures of value, but not when considering their shrinking supply.

We measured changes in the number of outstanding shares of about 350 stocks with an aggregate market capitalization of $17.4 trillion (the total market is currently around $28 trillion). We found that since the beginning of 2011, the number of shares dropped by about 8%. If those shares had not been retired, this group would have a $1.7 trillion larger market capitalization. This extrapolates to a $2.8 trillion shortfall for the total market of US equities due to corporate buybacks.

image 1This estimation is remarkably similar to the $3.0 trillion retired equities calculated by the Federal Reserve. In addition, the Fed tallies the value of shares retired due to mergers and acquisitions, which adds up to another $2.3 trillion, for a total of $5.3 trillion in that period. This was only partially offset by $2.9 trillion of new issues coming to market. On balance, therefore, corporate America retired $2.4 trillion of equities value, which is on par with the GDP of the United Kingdom.

image 2This has vast implications. Stock prices go up disproportionately to the number of shares retired, meaning that a 1% reduction in supply causes a price appreciation much larger than 1%. More precisely, the marginal change in price due to the marginal change in supply is very high. This effect is not easy to isolate and measure, but it is undoubtedly present, and we believe that it is an important factor behind the market rally.

It also helps explain why equities seem expensive against traditional measures of value, such as P/E ratios. A corporation finds value in buying its own stock if it reduces its cost of capital, regardless of what those indicators show. The fact that top management compensation is often linked to the price of their stock may also play a role in a company’s decision to repurchase stock.

As long as this activity continues, the market will continue to seem “expensive”, and it may become more so if the Trump administration’s attempts to reduce the corporate tax rate eventually succeed.

Many US corporations with profitable global operations have not brought back those funds because they are subject to taxation once they come in. According to Moody’s, non-financial US companies hold close to $2 trillion abroad. If a corporate tax cut persuades companies to bring back their overseas profits, the likelihood is that they will be used to repurchase company stock. It is quite doubtful, as proponents of the tax cut argue, that they will be invested in their respective lines of businesses. Given that businesses have easy access to historically cheap credit, money sitting abroad does not seem to be a hindrance to financing any investments that seem promising.

Most recently, both our numbers and the Fed’s numbers show a slight decline in the pace of equity retirement. It could be “noise”, or it could be due to the modest interest rate rise of late last year.

It is reasonable to assume that if interest rates or equity prices go up much further, the economic benefits of retiring shares will end. The danger of higher rates is small, in our view, because it is difficult for the Fed to justify lifting rates much more when inflation has been falling further and further away from its target. As much as the Fed wants to “normalize” monetary policy, hiking rates when inflation is falling is risky.

On the other hand, earnings-per-share have been climbing, both on a trailing and (especially) on a forward basis. Moreover, Europe looks stronger and global GDP projections have improved. These fundamental factors support higher equity prices everywhere, regardless of the impact of corporate demand for equities.

These fundamental factors could make equities seem less expensive in the medium term when compared to traditional measures of revenue and earnings, and could well spur a new wave of demand from retail investors who, because of low interest rates, have few other places to go for returns. The market rally will end one day, but the combination of corporate demand, improving fundamentals, benign outlook for rates and a potential for growing retail demand are pushing that day further into the future.

What now?
We are a Registered Investment Advisor held to a fiduciary standard of care. We believe that our portfolio management process, focused on measuring and managing risk, can be very effective at creating a sensible balance between risk and return, partly by measuring financial and investment conditions often and adjusting portfolios through a well-defined process. We implement this process for our clients and we tailor it for their specific circumstances, and we always put their interests first. That means we do not profit from transactions or by selling any products. Our only compensation is based on the assets we manage, which goes a long way of aligning our interests with yours. We can also help you evaluate your current goals and establish an investment plan aiming at achieving steady, long-term returns while managing downside risk. You can download our report describing our investment methods and goals, or contact us if you would like to know more about how Path Financial’s investment process can work for you. We’ll be happy to set up a confidential meeting to discuss your path to financial success. Read more.

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Raul cropped for facebookRaul Elizalde is the Founder, President, and Chief Investment Officer of Path Financial, LLC. He may be reached at 941.350.7904 or raul@pathfinancial.net.

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10 Things You Should Know about Social Security

By: Oxana Saunders

coins and plants growingAs we think about retirement planning, the big part of it for most Americans is Social Security. It could be quite difficult to navigate all the rules associated with Social Security especially if you are trying to maximize your monthly payments. It gets even more confusing if you continue to work part time or have other sources of income.

Recent changes to Social Security rules certainly did not make it any easier. Below is a link to Kiplinger’s easy-to-understand Social Security guide that can help you educate yourself on what benefits you are entitled to and when.

kiplinger 10 Things You Must Know About Social Security

If you are in the process of retirement planning and are not clear on how to optimize your Social Security payments within your current financial state, contact us for a free consultation.

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Oxana Saunders Vice President Path FinancialOxana Saunders is the Vice President of Path Financial, LLC. She may be reached at 941.894.2571 or oxana@pathfinancial.net.

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